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Feature Articles |
A Grown Up Approach To GrowthJanuary 17, 2003By Jack SkelleyULI Los Angeles Newsletter Winter 2002/03--Issue 5 The October 10 event at USC, Reality Check on Growth, was an unusual and important wake-up call. Sponsored by the Urban Land Institute Los Angeles District Council and the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, Reality Check gathered approximately 200 civic leaders—government officials, environmentalists, developers, academics, community activists—to create growth scenarios for the future of Southern California. These leaders were trained in an innovative, handson “growth visioning” process. They broke into small teams, each with a large, table-sized map of the region (Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties). They also received small chips representing the anticipated population increase of 6 million over the next 25 years, as well as demographic, geographic and economic data. Groups then had three hours to agree on where the future growth should go by placing their chips on the maps. “It is expected that Southern California will add the population equivalent of another Chicago within the next generation,” said Donald H. Brackenbush, Chair of ULI Los Angeles. “This Reality Check is designed to encourage leaders to confront dramatic but necessary changes on issues such as housing and transportation.” Immediately after this “growth visioning” exercise, the USC GIS Research Laboratory tabulated the recommendations from each team. Among the results: L.A. County as a whole would get 2,813,000 new residents, with another 757,000 going to Orange County. Among the sectors the GIS Lab defined, the largest population increase—587,000 new residents— would occur in Downtown and adjacent areas near Glendale and Pasadena. “The Gold Line will be getting quite a workout,” noted USC GIS Director John Wilson, referring to the light rail line now under construction. Obviously, with this kind of growth, the Southern California planning model of low-density sprawl will no longer work. And most of the Reality Check tables opted for higher density development to accommodate growth. But in most communities today, density, infill and affordable housing are dirty words. Realizing that Southern California must transcend these political stalemates was perhaps the most important point of Reality Check on Growth. “Our hope is that this process will break through the entitlement logjam,” explained Stuart A. Gabriel, Director of the USC Lusk Center. The model for Reality Check on Growth was Envision Utah, a large scale growth visioning used to create a “preferred growth scenario” for the area surrounding and including Salt Lake City. The project is credited with spearheading dialog over a two-year period, and building public support for expanded transportation infrastructure. Much the same result is expected here. Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), the only regional planning entity that governs all five counties, will now undertake a two-year study building upon the results of Reality Check. | |
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